2023 predictions: 5 big things we're expecting this year in mobile, NBN, and streaming

2022 is over. Another year down. Another big year of tech and telco. Phone plans (like everything else) got more expensive, we were allowed to travel and pay pricey roaming rates again, Netflix has ads now, Apple axed the notch (but not really), and there was that big data breach that some would rather forget. But that’s old news now. Here’s what I think could be next.

More mobile plans will have speed caps

I've been expecting mobile providers to start introducing speed caps for years and 2023 feels like the year the idea will go mainstream.

The TLDR is that most mobile plans already have more data than what we're using. This makes it harder for telcos to sell their more expensive plans based on data alone, cause the subset of people who need a 300GB mobile allowance is tiny.

Mobile providers would naturally prefer to sell their more expensive plans, as it increases their average revenue per user. So how do you do this when even entry-level plans have too much data? Sell plans based on speed instead.

We've seen this idea dabbled with in Australia already. felix has a truly unlimited plan that's capped to 20Mbps. Telstra introduced a 250Mbps speed cap on its entry-level plan last year, while keeping its more expensive plans uncapped. Belong added a 100Mbps speed cap to all of its plans, which is a restriction being rolled out to most Telstra-powered providers.

I don't think 2023 will take us to the European model where all mobile plans are unlimited and you just pick what speed you want, but we'll get a step closer - and the main reason is 5G.

Capped speed plans solve the 5G problem. Telcos want 5G to be a premium product they can charge more for, but at the same time, wider 5G adoption helps with network efficiency.

Rather than selling 4G or 5G, making all plans 5G but with different spends is an elegant solution. Buying a plan on speed is easier to understand than network technology.

It seems like Telstra is ready to adopt this model, and is currently running a 100Mbps speed "5G free trial" with the majority of its MVNO partners. It's very easy to see this become a permanent fixture.

If this is the case, I'd expect to see the same strategy industry-wide.

The TPG Group has also been offering 5G as a free trial on select MVNO mobile plans, while perpetually extending the end date. It's not a long-term solution.

Meanwhile, Optus has been the most stringent about devaluing its 5G network through MVNOs, to the point where many of its MVNOs simply don't offer it.

Building a new mobile network and then restricting access to it doesn't make much sense, especially when telcos benefit from more customers being on 5G. While speed-capped plans would ultimately be worse value for consumers, they're a way for telcos to have their cake and eat it too.

We’ll see further consolidation of smaller providers

2022 ended with MyRepublic announcing that it will leave the Australian market and sell its customers to Superloop. My hunch is this a sign of things to come.

Australia is lucky enough to have a glut of smaller providers to pick from in both the NBN and mobile space, but at the end of the day, they're all competing for a finite amount of customers.

You need a certain amount of customers to make your business viable, and we're currently facing a recession and inflation. 2023 is shaping up to be a challenging year for smaller businesses.

At the same time, medium-to-large telcos need to show growth to keep investors happy. One way to do this is diversifying your offering - Telstra's upcoming entry into the energy market, for example. Alternatively, you can buy a rival and add a whole lot of customers in one fell swoop.

Independent brands like SpinTel, MATE, Moose, and Circles.Life could all be attractive purchases for a larger telco. Hell, Commonwealth could be willing to sell off Tangerine and More if the price is right.

Password sharing on streaming services will get harder

Netflix is set to crack down on password sharing imminently, which is a move that will reverberate across the entire streaming industry. If the entertainment giant can successfully curb password sharing without adversely impacting the number of paying subscribers or market value, you can bet other players will follow suit. After all, why would services like Disney+ or Stan leave money on the table?

I don't think this will all happen at once, but as the year progresses, more and more services will implement measures to hamper password sharing until it becomes somewhat of an industry standard.

The main exceptions would be players like Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+, where streaming itself isn't the main business model, but a value add - and where you may feel less comfortable sharing your primary login, anyway.

Plans will keep getting more expensive

We saw mobile and NBN plans get more expensive last year, and we're expecting this trend to continue in 2023. Long gone are the days of an NBN 50 plan for a flat $50 per month.

On the mobile front, Telstra and Optus both increased plan prices for their entire plan range last year. Telstra went as far as saying it may do so every year going forward, in line with inflation.

If Telstra follows through, this creates room for other brands to follow suit. As long as a telco is more affordable than Telstra, it can still seem competitive after a price hike.

Vodafone is admittedly a bit of a wildcard here. It held firm with pricing through 2022, and if it continues to do so, it could keep Optus in check. Of course, if the Telstra-TPG network sharing agreement goes through, Vodafone would be in a much better position and have justification for charging more.

When it comes to NBN, we even saw historically value-driven brands like TPG increase prices last year. The loss of smaller brands like MyRepublic will only hurt competition, especially in the high-speed space where it heavily undercut the market.

Considering inflation and the slim margins associated with the category, I'm largely expecting to see NBN get more expensive on average.

Smart glasses, take two

Last year I predicted we'd see a glut of smart glasses in 2022. I was wrong. But 2023 could finally be the year of the on-your-face wearable.

Firstly, Apple is finally expected to reveal its take on a virtual reality / augmented reality headset this year. Where Apple goes, the industry typically follows.

Secondly, Qualcomm recently announced a chipset specifically designed for augmented reality smart glasses. Manufacturers including OPPO, Lenovo, LG, TCL, Tencent, Sharp, Nreal, Pico (owned by TikTok parent company Bytedance), QOQOQ, Vuzix, and Xiaomi all have products using the chip in various stages of development.

While it's not guaranteed that many of these will make it to Australia, 2023 is shaping up to be the boom year for smart glasses.

I could be wrong again, but here's to hopefully reviewing a hell of a lot of weird first-generation smart glasses over 2023.

Alex Choros

Managing Editor + Group Telco Editor | X | Instagram | Threads | LinkedIn

Alex Choros is the Managing Editor of WhistleOut Australia and an award-winning journalist. He's been writing about consumer technology for over a decade and is an expert on the Australian telco sector, to the point where he knows far too many phone and internet plans by heart. In addition to leading the WhistleOut editorial team, Alex is responsible for ruining the office Sonos with his troubled taste in music.

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